Historic moment! Deutsche Bank: Gold price to take off from 10,000 level! Gold officially surpasses US Treasuries, becoming the world's largest reserve asset!
Global financial markets usher in a textbook-rewriting historic inflection point! The European Central Bank's latest blockbuster report releases a set of core data that completely overturns three decades of global reserve landscape: As of end-2025, gold's share of global central bank reserves rises to 27%, officially surpassing US Treasuries' 22% reserve share, becoming the world's top reserve asset.
This is gold reclaiming its throne after many years, and the strongest signal that de-dollarization has fully transformed from a slogan into reality. Deutsche Bank even makes a bold prediction: Gold's current rally is by no means a short-term rebound; it will take off from the 10,000 level, and a new super bull market is starting.
Many investors wonder: What does gold surpassing US Treasuries mean? Is the current long-term consolidation of gold prices a washout or a top? How will gold trend in the future? This article deeply analyzes the underlying logic of gold's overtaking of US Treasuries, historical correlation patterns, short-term intraday battles, and post-market trading opportunities.
1. Gold Overtakes US Treasuries! Global Reserve Landscape Completely Rewritten
For a long time, US Treasuries, backed by US dollar credit, fixed interest income, and global acceptance, have firmly held the top spot among global central bank reserve assets, serving as the core cornerstone of the global financial system. Gold, as a non-yielding asset, has only been used as a safe-haven floor allocation, with its share remaining low for a long time.
But the 2025 reserve data completely break the established pattern: gold reserve share at 27%, US Treasury reserve share at only 22%, gold overwhelms US Treasuries with absolute advantage, topping global official reserve assets. This 5-percentage-point gap is not caused by short-term price fluctuations, but is the inevitable result of long-term portfolio rebalancing by global central banks.
Global central banks have long begun a continuous gold purchasing cycle: net purchases exceeded 1,000 tons annually from 2022 to 2024, and remained around 850 tons of net buying in 2025; the People's Bank of China increased gold holdings for 18 consecutive months, while central banks of Poland, Turkey, India, Brazil and others also ramped up purchases simultaneously, with buying staying persistent and firm.
The core root of central banks collectively abandoning US Treasuries and hoarding gold is the 2022 US dollar reserve freeze incident, which made countries worldwide clearly see the instability of US dollar credit. US Treasuries are debt assets dependent on credit backing, subject to sanctions or freezes at any time; gold, however, has no credit dependence, no counterparty risk, and cannot be frozen, making it the only truly safe asset.
As ECB President Lagarde said: Geopolitical tensions persist, and global institutions are preparing for the worst-case scenario. Gold replacing US Treasuries is not short-term market hype but a decade-long structural financial transformation.
2. Reviewing History: Gold Reserve Share Determines Major Gold Bull and Bear Cycles
Gold prices have never been determined purely by technicals; they core follow changes in global central bank reserve structure. Looking back at half a century of financial history, gold reserve share has been highly synchronized with gold price movements.
Before the Bretton Woods system collapsed, gold's central bank reserve share exceeded 60%, with the gold price pegged to the US dollar and stable; after the system collapsed, the world continuously sold gold and increased US Treasury holdings, and gold's reserve share fell to less than 10% by the late 1990s, corresponding to gold prices falling continuously for 20 years from a high of $850 to a low of around $250.
Now the trend has completely reversed: gold's reserve share has risen from below 10% to 27%, while the US dollar reserve share has fallen from a high of 60% to 40%. The share of dollar reserves lost over the past decade has almost entirely been absorbed by gold.
Deutsche Bank clearly predicts: If gold's central bank reserve share further climbs to 40%, the gold price will break through the 10,000 level ($10,000), and the potential of this gold bull market far exceeds market imagination.
Bridgewater's Dalio also precisely nailed the core: Most people misunderstand gold as a commodity and fiat currency as money, but in reality, fiat currency is a debt illusion, and gold is the ultimate settlement currency. When gold becomes the core global reserve asset, one cannot view the market from a short-term fluctuation perspective.
It should be objectively noted that this round of gold's share overtaking US Treasuries is partly due to the market value increase from rising gold prices. But the core driving force remains central banks' continuous net buying, buying-only-no-selling, adding positions on dips, and the long-term upward shift of the gold price center is already irreversible.
3. Short-Term Battles: Japan FX Intervention Pulls Gold in Both Directions
Many investors are puzzled: With long-term bullish factors abundant, why does gold price continue to range-trade? The core lies in the two-way battle between short-term bearish and long-term bullish factors.
To stabilize the yen exchange rate, Japan uses two sets of operational tools: first, selling US Treasuries, increasing supply, lowering prices, and raising yields, which increases the opportunity cost of holding gold and suppresses gold prices in the short term; second, selling US dollars and buying yen, causing excess dollar liquidity to flow into the gold market, offsetting the interest rate headwind.
This is also the core reason for gold's repeated volatility recently: long-term central bank gold buying provides a floor, short-term US Treasury yield fluctuations exert pressure. The volatility is not market weakness but a buildup washout before a major move.
4. Technicals Set Direction: 4-Hour Head-and-Shoulders Bottom Formed, Key Range Locked
Macro fundamentals are long-term bullish, and technicals also present a classic bottom pattern. Gold is forming a head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern on the 4-hour chart, a typical deep squat buildup before a takeoff.
Key structure of the pattern: the low of $4,367 on May 29 is the bottom low, the left and right shoulders repeatedly oscillate to build the base, $4,450 is a strong short-term support, and the $4,590 neckline is the key to breakout.
Recently, gold prices have been fluctuating back and forth, but have consistently held above the key support of $4,450, and the battle between bulls and bears is entering its final stage. The post-market path is very clear:
1. Break above the $4,590 neckline with volume, the head-and-shoulders bottom is formally confirmed, with a theoretical target of $4,813, further opening upward space to $5,000;
2. Effectively break below the $4,450 support, the pattern fails to build, and gold prices will continue to range-trade, continuing to grind the bottom and build momentum.
$4,450-$4,590 is the core observation range for gold in the coming week, and also the watershed for the start of a new major trend.
5. Final Summary: The Era of Gold's Kingship Has Arrived
From a macro fundamental perspective, gold surpassing US Treasuries to become the world's top reserve asset, central banks' continuous gold purchases, and deepening de-dollarization make the long-term bull logic unprecedentedly clear; from a technical perspective, gold has fully accumulated at the bottom, a classic head-and-shoulders bottom pattern is brewing, and a breakout is imminent.
The current gold volatility is not weakness; it is the final buildup before the storm. Deutsche Bank's 10,000-level gold price forecast is not empty talk; as the global reserve system continues to restructure, gold's revaluation rally has just begun.
Investors need not obsess over short-term minor fluctuations; keep a close eye on key support and breakout signals, and align with the decade-long financial trend to capture this super bull market in gold.
